01
Snapshot capture
Every round we capture an OPENING snapshot Tue/Wed once bookmakers post lines, and a CLOSING snapshot at T-85 minutes per match. Each snapshot records the tier classification, market, threshold, and odds at capture time.
STRICT · CLOSING SNAPSHOTS
91.5%
Hit rate across 437 STRICT closing-line snapshots in the 2026 season. Settled against official AFL Tables stats.
STRICT
91.5%
- Avg odds
- $1.12
- $1 flat ROI
- +2.7%
STANDARD
85.3%
- Avg odds
- $1.17
- $1 flat ROI
- -0.2%
LOOSE
76.4%
- Avg odds
- $1.25
- $1 flat ROI
- -4.7%
/02
Round-by-round trajectory
/03
Per-market breakdown
| Tier · Market | Snapshots | Hits | Hit rate | Avg odds | Flat single-leg ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STRICTDisposals · all lines | 437 | 400 | 91.5% | $1.12 | +2.7% |
| STANDARDDisposals · all lines | 529 | 451 | 85.3% | $1.17 | -0.2% |
| LOOSEDisposals · all lines | 677 | 517 | 76.4% | $1.25 | -4.7% |
FLAT SINGLE-LEG ROI = ((HITS × AVG ODDS) − SNAPSHOTS) / SNAPSHOTS · ASSUMES $1 ON EACH LEG AS A SINGLE · NO PARLAYS · MARGIN NOT REMOVED. STATLINE IS BUILT FOR SAME-GAME MULTIS — SINGLE-LEG ROI UNDERSTATES THE COMBINED EDGE; HIT RATE IS THE HEADLINE METRIC.
/04
Methodology
02
Tier classification
STRICT / STANDARD / LOOSE reflect rule-based confidence given role, time-on-ground, contested possession rate, opponent history, and team-list certainty. Tier is locked in at snapshot time — no after-the-fact re-classification.
03
Settlement
After the round, we scrape player match totals from afltables.com and mark each snapshot HIT or MISS against the threshold it was captured at. Hit rate above is the closing-line rate; opening-line equivalents are available in the authed product.
04
What's anonymised
This page shows aggregate rates only. No player names, no per-match odds, no slip data. Counts smaller than 100 are rounded to the nearest 10 to avoid statistical re-identification. Pro-tier subscribers see the full per-pick detail.
DATA AS OF 27 June 2026, 11:00 pm1,368 SETTLED HITS
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Aggregate hit rates are free, every round. The per-pick detail — player names, thresholds, closing odds, late team-list change context — is behind Pro.